Católica polls stand out for their accuracy in the 2026 Presidential Election

The polls conducted by the Universidade Católica Portuguesa, carried out by the Centre for Studies and Opinion Polls (CESOP-UCP), have reaffirmed their status as a benchmark on the national and international scene, standing out for their credibility, reliability and methodological robustness.

On Presidential Election Day, 18 January, CESOP conducted an exit poll for RTP. The last major pre-election poll had been released on 14 January for RTP, Antena 1 and PÚBLICO.

The fieldwork mobilised a team of 153 collaborators, spread across 38 parishes from north to south of the country. The parishes were selected according to the distribution of voters across the NUTS II regions, ensuring that the average election results from the last elections, weighted by the electoral weight of the respective regions, were less than one percentage point from the national results of the five most voted candidates in each election.

In total, 31.221 people participated in a mock ballot, in accordance with CESOP methodology, with a response rate of 68.51%.

The exit poll projection once again demonstrated CESOP's technical and scientific capacity to reflect voters’ intentions. The estimated results for each candidate were very close to the official results, highlighting the Centre's methodological robustness and the reliability of its polls.

The results announced at 8 p.m. on the public channel were considered highly positive, reinforcing CESOP's reputation as a benchmark for rigorous and impartial electoral polls. This work also highlights the Católica's commitment to the scientific analysis of political and social phenomena, contributing to qualified information and public debate in Portugal.

The programme “Special Presidential Elections 2026 – Election Night”, hosted by José Rodrigues dos Santos, Ana Lourenço, João Adelino Faria, Carlos Daniel and Cristina Esteves, featured the participation of CESOP Director João António in the studio.