2025 Local Elections: Nine projections from the Universidade Católica for RTP
On Local Election Day 2025, CESOP – Universidade Católica Portuguesa once again played a central role in electoral analysis, conducting nine exit polls in municipalities from north to south of the country for RTP. The public channel was the television station that broadcast the highest number of projected results on election night, releasing estimates for Braga, Porto, Vila Nova de Gaia, Coimbra, Lisbon, Loures, Sintra, Setúbal and Faro at 8 p.m. on the special programme Electoral Night - RTP.
The operation mobilised more than 200 people involved in the data collection and analysis process and involved around 42,000 respondents in a demanding process, which ended with an overall positive assessment.
Local elections pose greater challenges than national elections, especially in the context of major demographic and party system changes such as those we have seen in recent years. The ranking of the lists in the CESOP polls correctly reflected the relative position of all candidates in all municipalities with the exception of Lisbon, where the poll overestimated the candidacy led by Alexandra Leitão, and Braga, a municipality for which the poll estimated a ‘technical tie’ with a slight advantage for PS.PAN, and the winner ended up being the PSD coalition. CDS.PPM with a difference of 276 votes.
CESOP's estimate of the distribution of seats was accurate for all competing lists in all nine municipalities, with the exception of a discrepancy in Faro, where the Chega party elected a councillor not included in the projections.
The following tables illustrate the comparison between the projections released by RTP and the official results.
Consult the technical data sheets HERE.